Welcome to the Pre-Crisis Years (2016-2018)

Our model, derived from the principles laid by David Hume, Adam Smith, and Socrates, designated 2019 as the start of a global stagflation.

This stagflation will increase from 2020 onwards up to 2030 when it will reach its peak, culminating in some kind of conflict. A stagflation is a phenomenon which has low employment and output while having high prices at the same time.

How We Got the Prediction

According to Eastern social cycle theory, history repeats itself because humans are bound by Nature which is dualistic in itself. Nature is dualistic because existence necessitates two forces:

• A force for the ‘creator’*
• A force for the ‘creation’

• In Taoism, this duality is called Yin and Yang
• In Hinduism, it is called Shiva and Shakti
• In Descartes’ philosophy, this is called God and the Deceiver

This interaction between the 2 forces creates a recurring pattern while their existence is in force, just as the 2 forces of the Sun and outer space create a tug-of-war for the Earth manifesting as its orbital pattern.

We will use the name Positive and Negative Forces. In this way:

• the gravitation that keeps a star whole is the Positive Force

• the force that explodes the star as a supernova is the Negative Force

The Self-Organism and the Society-Organism

David Hume explained that the concept of the self arises from experiences which come from senses that are limited by Nature.

For example, when you buy a stock, you won’t know if its price will rise or fall. This is because you cannot sense all the thoughts and feelings of all the other buyers and sellers of that stock. So you buy it based on your own limited sensory experiences.

Putting this under the 2-forces model, we can say that:

• the decline in stock prices is a manifestation of the Negative Force, as people going away from stocks as repulsion
• the rise is from the Positive Force, as people going to stocks as attraction

All your individual experiences combined makes up your metaphysical self-organism, commonly called the soul .

A soul can have many selves, but a self can have only one soul. *

When all the individual experiences of all the people (self-organisms) in a country are combined, the result is a larger metaphysical organism called a society. *

This has its own soul which we call the ‘soul of society’.

• Each personal-soul has a self-interest just as every society-soul has a common-interest.
• Each personal-soul has a personality just as every society-soul has a culture.
• A personal-soul can have a personality disorder just as a society-soul can have a shocking culture.

Each society-organism then expresses its collective experiences as events, just as a personal-soul expresses itself through individual activities.

• A stock bubble is a manifestation of a society-organism wanting stocks (as Positive Force mentioned earlier)
• A presidential election is a society-organism choosing a leader (also as Positive Force)
• A war is a manifestation of a society-organism wanting a fight (Negative Force) with other society-organisms, and so on

The Social Cycles of the Society-Organism

Through time, these desires and experiences form a pattern which manifest as social cycles just as a person has life cycles of childhood, adulthood, and old age. The desires and activities of a child are different from those of an adult and much more different from those of an old man.

Our social cycle model applies on all events, but is easiest applied on presidential elections and economic events since they have very granular and detailed data as votes and prices, respectively. It can even be applied on sporting events* because a team is also a society-organism made up of members and the score is the data that can be modeled. The two forces are the desire of each team to win, or to go home.

Basically, the model starts with data from the 13th century as written by David Hume and Adam Smith (who also happened to be historians). We then filled in data from the 18th century, after Hume and Smith died, up to 2013 in order to see whether the social patterns continued.

If a stagflation does spark in 2019, then the pattern would be continuous.

The 2019 Stagflation is the 1930’s Depression and Subsequent War, But with Inflation

In the simplest terms:

• a stagnation is a non-growing economy
• a depression is a declining economy
• a stagflation is a declining or non-growing economy with rising prices

The Great Depression began as the “Roaring Twenties” which collapsed into a long recession. The ultimate cause of that depression was that the rich people from the 1920s wanted to be even richer. So they invented stock speculation (borrowing on margin) and imposed tariffs on imported goods. Likewise, Germany and Japan were already rich but wanted to be even richer.

The problem is that Adam Smith said that societies have a natural level of productivity*. If you exceed this level, you will be getting nothing back.

This nothingness (no revenue to match the investment) manifests as a crash**. And that’s exactly what happened in the Great Crash of 1929.

Suddenly, the US economy became nothing after 1929 and the US society-organism became weak. This empowered Germany and Japan to push their own ego-experiences as Nazism and Bushido respectively. This led to a metaphysical clash of ideas which sparked a physical world war*.

Update: June 2024 (click to expand)

By actually living in the time of the 2008 Financial Crisis and the 2022 Ukraine and Gaza Wars, we get first hand experience of the patterns and feelings of both crisis. This makes us realize that both are the effects of the Negative Force being unchecked, causing it to gather steam until it explodes. The butterfly effect is the tiny spark that bursts or unleashes the built up Negativity, creating a perfect storm or reboot.

It is the Negative Force that causes the reboot since it is static, crude, and mindless. It started building up right after the end of WWII as the Cold War and international financial system where the latter burst in 2008 and the former is about to burst into WWIII.

The solution is the Positive Force which manifests as moneyless systems, constitutional virtues, Republican Federalism (as opposed to both wild democracy and authoritarianism), a world language easier than English, Cartesian Physics, Spinoza’s pantheism, etc.

So what are the deeper implications of a Global Stagflation and War? A New Science!

If a global stagflation does start from 2019, then it implies that economic activity follows a predictable pattern or cycles which are ultimately under the field of metaphysics – its laboratory is reality itself.

Buying and selling is based on desire and the roots of desire lies in the study of metaphysics of the soul and not in study of psychology or the brain. If the brain were the true source of desire, then pharmaceutical companies can simply invent brain-drugs that enhance the desire for intelligence, peace, hardwork, anti-criminality, etc and solve all human problems instantly.

But such brain-drugs these do not exist.

In the ancient past, Jewish prophets used metaphysics to make predictions about future events using their intuition, which allowed them to tap into their metaphysical society-organism. They would have an intuitional (aethereal) dream about a future event that might or might not happen.

The problem with the ancient method is that the dream of the future event exists solely in the metaphysical domain. It might not cross over onto physical reality, leading to some predictions that do not come true.

Our prediction system provides a more scientific and realistic way of making predictions by plotting both the metaphysical behavior of each society-organism and the actual physical events that really happen.

It would be like getting a gut-feeling or intuition (non-scientific, arbitrary) that there is an invisible entity in an area, and then spraying powder on it in order to see that entity indirectly with the specks acting as measurable (scientific) proof.

With the society-organism, each speck of powder represents an event, while big blobs of powder representing big events like conflict or crises.

The more event-data is available, the easier it is to reveal the hidden dynamics of the society-organism and its possible futures, just as having more stats of each basketball team can help predict their future victory or loss. Each ball-pass, shot made, and block attempt is an event that reveals the actual mentality of each player.

This process can be automated with machine learning to create a digital prophet, which is the idea behind ISAIAH .

Western economists and policy makers have no idea of metaphysics (karma, dharma, varna, akasha), so they do not know the root causes of economic crises, wars, and other negative events. This is why they are unable to provide real solutions. Rather, their solutions solve a problem but create new ones.

• The problem of terrorism still exists.
• Economic crises and inequality are still here.
• North Korea is still nuclear.
• China is still grabbing land unjustly (just like the Mongols).

By tapping into Western metaphysics of David Hume, Adam Smith, Spinoza and Eastern metaphysics in Hinduism, Buddhism, Sikhism, Taoism, etc., the root causes of any event can be known and the best solutions can be put forward.