Prediction Successes and Failures

Since the 2008 from the US Presidential elections and 2013 from the Greek Debt Crisis, we’ve been making predictions on society and economics as an implentation of Supersociology.

Prediction List

Here are the results so far:

Country	Year Prediction was Made	Prediction	Outcome
World	2015	A global crisis will spark in 2019 marking the start of a long crisis which we call ‘The Crisis Years’	Correct
World	2019	A global financial crisis will emerge in a certain year between 2020-2030 as a result of that 2019 crisis	Semi-correct, split as the US banking Crisis and the fall of cyrpto
	2024	The US will participate in a large scale war during Trump’s term	Pending
	2024	Harris will win, as we estimate that the US is leaving its Warrior Cycle. In reality, Trump won, which means the US is still in the Warrior Cycle that it was in back in 2016. This necessarily leads to a World War 3 prediction above. We explain our wrong prediction here	Wrong
	2023	Russia will step up its offensives against Ukraine despite the lack of resources	Correct
	2023	The Gaza war will continue well beyond 12 months.	Correct
	2022	Bongbong Marcos will win the elections	Correct
	2022	The US will reduce sanctions during its mid-Thinker cycle	Pending (This has partly come true with Biden easing some sanctions in 2024)
	2022	Hungary: Orban will win the elections	Correct
	2021	Probing prediction–Kono will be Prime Minister. In reality, Kishida won. This proves that Japanese political system is a society within a society that represents itself and not the people, just like China’s Communist party. To predict Japan’s elections, the model has to be applied to the LDP	Null
	2008 & 2012	Obama will win the elections, 2016 Clinton will win the popular vote, 2020 Biden will win the popular vote	Correct
	2021	Navalny’s protests will not bear fruit and will fizzle out, while Russia will increase its militarization [This is especially true in 12/2021 with Russia amassing troops near Ukraine – it will only get worse!]	Correct
	2021	Netanyahu will lose power after 2020.	Correct. He lost but merely came back through his party
	2019	The franchise of ABS-CBN will not be renewed in 2020	Correct
	2018	The Hongkong protests will fail to grant democracy to Hongkong	Correct
	2017	Macron will win	Correct
	2022	Macron will win	Correct
	2017	Softbank’s Vision Fund will lose on its biggest bets	Correct
	2017	Rohingya crisis will remain	Correct
	2017	The economic crisis in Venezuela will remain until a certain future year	Null (no way to prove or disprove)
	2017	Duterte allies will win in 2018	Correct
	2017	Israeli Crypto Bancor will crash	Correct
	2016	Roxas will win the elections	Wrong
	2016	The US will slowly lift more sanctions	Wrong. In reality, Trump imposed new sanctions
	2016	Scotland will want to leave the UK	Semi-correct
	2015	Assad will start losing ground to rebels by late 2016 (Update 2022: This is explained by the concept of the balance of power )	Wrong
	2015	The Jeddah Tower will not be completed on time	Correct
	2015	The Greek debt crisis will continue	Correct

As you can see, there were many mistakes in the beginning. But just like any learning system, it gets better in time as the patterns of social cycles and their interaction with each other become clearer.

Based on Recurring Social Cycles

The core of the model is based on David Hume‘s maxim that mentality creates reality. The model proposes that human society is a metaphysical entity that is made up of individual metaphysical entities called human souls or abstract minds.

This society has its own known dynamics which is explained by the ‘Social Cycle’ model of Socrates and the ‘Moral Sentiments’ model of Adam Smith, Hume’s best friend.

Each society’s mentality has its own cycles which clash or concur with those of others, creating the events in the news. By knowing the flow of each mentality, then the outcome of regular events or long-running events can be predicted, such as elections, conflicts, or economic recessions. This is somewhat used nowadays in Game Theory. However, instead of creating selfish actors like in game theory, we use a specific range of personality ‘types’ with their own attributes and dynamics.

These ‘types’ are generally known as varnas in Hinduism and the social classes in ancient China.

Historical events are used as ‘markers’ for plotting the flow of this mentality, which can be used as training data for Artificial Intelligence to better crunch all events together to form more accurate mentalities and therefore predictions.

Social Years, Months, Weeks, Days

A social day is around 12-20 earth-years (revolution around the sun).

A week is 4 days.

A month is 4 weeks.

A year is 4 months.

This gives us the following ranges:

For example:

• Israel is currently in the 5th year from the start of their society which began around 1300’s BC as their exodus from Egypt.
• Russia is on the 5th week from the start of the Russian Empire of Catherine the Great.
• The Philippines is on the 2nd month as Westernized Maharlika

Some Countries are Easy to Predict, Some are Difficult

It’s easy to make accurate predictions for the USA because there is a lot of consistent, historical data from its inception in 1776 up to today. However, it’s difficult to make predictions for:

• Middle Eastern countries like Syria and Iraq as they were bunched up together under the Ottoman Empire for many years
• countries whose histories are not in English, such as Vietnam and Thailand
• countries that have so much historical information such as China and India. This increases the noise which prevents accurate modelling. The Europeans fixed this problem when enlightened writers weeded out the noise or inferior historians