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Prediction Successes and Failures Icon

July 27, 2021
Tsz-chang asked: Is it possible to forecast the state of the country 10 generations from now?

Confucius: The Yin dynasty adopted the rules and manners of the Hu line of kings. It is possible to tell whether it retrograded or advanced. The Chow line has followed the Yin and adopted its ways. Whether there has been deterioration or improvement may also be determined. Some other line may take up in turn those of Chow. If this process goes on for 100 generations, then the result may be known. Analects

Since the 2008 from the US Presidential elections and 2013 from the Greek Debt Crisis, we’ve been making predictions on society and economics as an implentation of Supersociology.

Prediction List

Here are the results so far:

Country Year Prediction was Made: Prediction Outcome
World 2015: A global crisis will begin in 2019 as a long crisis Correct
World 2019: A global financial crisis will emerge in a certain year between 2020-2030 as a result of that 2019 crisis Pending
Philippine flag 2022: Bongbong Marcos will win the elections Correct
Cuba flag 2022: The US will reduce sanctions during its mid-philosopher cycle Pending
Hungary flag 2022 Hungary: Orban will win the elections Correct
Japan flag 2021: Probing prediction–Kono will be Prime Minister. In reality, Kishida won. This proves that Japanese political system is a society within a society that represents itself and not the people, just like China’s Communist party. To predict Japan’s elections, the model has to be applied to the LDP Null
US flag 2008 & 2012 Obama will win the elections, 2016 Clinton will win the popular vote, 2020 Biden will win the popular vote Correct
Russian flag 2021: Navalny’s protests will not bear fruit and will fizzle out, while Russia will increase its militarization [This is especially true in 12/2021 with Russia amassing troops near Ukraine – it will only get worse!] Correct
Israel flag 2021: Netanyahu will lose power after 2020 Correct
Philippines flag 2019: The franchise of ABS-CBN will not be renewed in 2020 Correct
Chinese flag 2018: The Hongkong protests will fail to grant democracy to Hongkong Correct
India flag 2017: The BJP will lose power at a certain year Pending
France flag 2017: Macron will win, 2022: Macron will win Correct
Japan flag 2017: Softbank’s Vision Fund will lose on its biggest bets Correct
Myannmar flag 2017: Rohingya crisis will remain Correct
Venezuela flag 2017: The economic crisis in Venezuela will remain until a certain future year Null (no way to prove or disprove)
Philippines flag 2017: Duterte allies will win in 2018 Correct
Israel flag 2017: Israeli Crypto Bancor will crash Correct
Philippine flag 2016: Roxas will win the elections Wrong
Iran flag 2016: The US will slowly lift more sanctions (In reality, Trump imposed new sanctions Wrong
Great Britain flag 2016: Scotland will want to leave the UK Semi-correct
Syria flag 2015: Assad will start losing ground to rebels by late 2016 (Update 2022: This is explained by the concept of the balance of power Wrong
Saudi flag 2015: The Jeddah Tower will not be completed on time Correct
Greek flag 2015: The Greek debt crisis will continue Correct

As you can see, there were many mistakes in the beginning. But just like any learning system, it gets better in time as the patterns of social cycles and their interaction with each other become clearer.

Based on Recurring Social Cycles

The core of the model is based on David Hume‘s maxim that mentality creates reality. The model proposes that human society is a metaphysical entity that is made up of individual metaphysical entities called human minds. This society has its own known dynamics which is explained by the ‘Social Cycle’ model and Adam Smith’s ‘Moral Sentiments’ model.

David Hume

Each society’s mentality has its own cycles which clash or concur with those of others, creating the events in the news. By knowing the flow of each mentality, then the outcome of regular events or long-running events can be predicted, such as elections, conflicts, or economic recessions. This is somewhat used nowadays in Game Theory. However, instead of creating selfish actors like in game theory, we use a specific range of actor ‘types’ with their own attributes and dynamics.

These ‘types’ are generally known as varnas in Hinduism and the social classes in ancient China.

Historical events are used as ‘markers’ for plotting the flow of this mentality, which can be used as training data for Artificial Intelligence to better crunch all events together to form more accurate mentalities and therefore predictions.

Some Countries are Easy to Predict, Some are Difficult

It’s easy to make accurate predictions for the USA because there is a lot of consistent, historical data from its inception in 1776 up to today. However, it’s difficult to make predictions for:

  • Middle Eastern countries like Syria and Iraq as they were bunched up together under the Ottoman Empire for many years,
  • countries whose histories are not in English, such as Vietnam and Thailand
  • countries that have so much historical information such as China and India. This increases the noise which prevents accurate modelling. The Europeans fixed this problem when englightened writers weeded out the noise or inferior historians