How to Fix UkraineFebruary 26, 2023 by Juan
|Current Cycle||Years per Cycle||Social Age|
|To be determined||-||-|
The Russia-Ukraine war is now on its second year, creating nearly the worst reality after a year of conflict.
The best reality in 2022 would have been for the Ukranian President to flee in February, allowing Russia to control all of Ukraine. This would have prevented:
- the massive deaths, casualties, and destruction in Ukraine
- the loss of soldiers on both sides
- the massacre at Bucha and other places
- the Ukrainian refugee crisis
- the global food and supply chain crisis
The worst reality is for Russia to use nuclear weapons, with North Korea and even China joining in to create World War 3.
Some predict the war to end soon , probably even within this year . Others predict a conflict with no foreseeable end
Our model clearly says that the war will go on up to a specific year when Russsia leaves its current Warrior Cycle. In fact, a long war is advantageous to Russia as the West does not seem to like long wars. This is proven by:
- the withdrawal of NATO in Afghanistan
- the withdrawal of the US in Vietnam
It might even merge with the coming China-Taiwan war.
The mess left behind by Western policy in Libya, Syria, and Iraq are further proofs of how a conflict can create a perpetual state of crisis.
The Mongol Vision
We foresee that the military aid to Ukraine will start to be questioned in the West by 2024 as it falls short of expectations. With superior Western weapons, Ukraine might win its tactical objectives. But Russia will keep clawing its way back to mute or nullify those victories.
This is because Russia has the moral cause, as:
- the unity of the Rus
This is similar to North Vietnam engaging in a long war against US-supported South Vietnam, winning in the long run to unify the Vietnamese.
China will then take a more prominent role in the peace negotiations, as well as the reconstruction of Ukraine which will have its eastern part going to Russia.
After many years, after Ukraine gets accepted into the EU and NATO, the usual problems will arise such as:
- regulatory issues
- exodus of Ukrainiains, and
- cultural differences.
Instead of the Western mentality affecting and improving the Slavic mentality, it will be the Slavic spreading onto the Western or Roman mentality.
The greater role of China, as Confucian mentality, and the spread of Slavic culture are consequences of the decline of Western civilzation. We had called this “ The Mongol Vision ”*. The massacre at Bucha is proof of the Mongol mentality within the soul of Russian society.
*The Ukrainians, as the Kievan Rus, made a fatal mistake of not surrendering to the Mongols in 1240. This led to their destruction. The Russians, on the other hand, surrendered. This allowed Russia to survive and be the leader of the Rus. Modern Ukraine had a chance to avoid the mistake that their ancestors made, only to blow that chance in 2014-2022. The root of the problem in Ukraine is that it is a fertile country in a barren neighborhood.
The Same Problem All Over Again
Our solution for both Ukraine in 2022 and Ukraine in 1240 are still the same: It should agree to peace as soon as possible.
This is because each day of delay divides the Slav mental wave as it spreads across Europe. More importantly, it will end the current food and supply chain crisis that affects most people on Earth.
PBS has a good documentary on the civil war in Ukraine: