Conditions For The Success Of The Democratic Method

5. The Present War And The Future Of Socialist Parties

How the present war will affect the fortunes of existing socialist groups of course depends on its duration and outcome.

Now July 1942, people expect that:

• Russia will emerge from the war with great power and prestige.
• Stalin will emerge as the true victor

If this should be so, it does not necessarily follow that a communist world revolution will be the consequence or even that there will be “Russification” of continental Europe accompanied by an extermination of the upper strata and a settlement of accounts with non-communist socialist (and Trotskyite) groups. For even barring a possible Anglo-American resistance to the expansion of Russian power, it is not certain that the self-interest of Russian autocracy will lie in that direction.

But it is certain that the chances for such a consummation— realization of the full Lenin program—would be immeasurably increased. However this world revolution might differ from the Marxian idea, it would for those who are willing to accept it as a substitute doubtless cease to be a daydream. And not only as regards Europe.

In that case the fate of orthodox socialism and all it stands for would be sealed. And so it would be, on the continent of Europe, in case the fascist powers hold their own. If however we again assume complete victory of the Anglo-American-Russian alliance—that is to say, a victory that enforces unconditional surrender but with all the honors held by England and the United States—then we see readily that orthodox socialism of the German Social Democratic or of a still more laborite type stands a much better chance to survive on the continent of Europe, at all events for some time. One reason for believing this is that people, if they find both the bolshevist and the fascist routes barred, may well turn to the Social Democratic republic as the most obvious of the remaining choices. But there is a much more important reason: laborite socialism will enjoy the favor of the victors. For the consequence of so complete a victory as we now envisage will be Anglo-American management of the affairs of the world—a kind of Anglo-American rule which, from the ideas we see taking shape under our eyes, may be termed Ethical Imperialism. A world order of this kind in which the interests and ambitions of other nations would count only as far as understood and approved by England and the United States can be established only by military force and upheld only by permanent readiness to use military force. It is perhaps unnecessary to explain why, in the political and economic conditions of our time, this would mean for these two countries a social organization that is best described as Militarist Socialism.

But it is clear that the task of controlling and policing the world would be much facilitated, on the one hand, by the re-creation and new creation of small and inefficient states in Europe and, on the other hand, by installing governments of the laborite or Social Democratic types. Especially in Germany and Italy, the debris of the Social Democratic parties would constitute the only political material from which to construct governments which could possibly accept this world order for longer than a period of prostration and cooperate with the agents of the world protectorate without mental reservations. Whatever it may be worth, this is the chance of Liberal Socialism.

From the standpoint of the subject of this book however (though from no other) all this is of secondary importance. Whatever the fate of particular socialist groups, there cannot be any doubt that the present conflagration will—inevitably, everywhere, and independently of the outcome of the war— mean another great stride toward the socialist order. An appeal to our experience of the effects of the First World War on the social fabric of Europe suffices to establish this prognosis. This time however the stride will be taken also in the United States.

But that experience, though a valuable guide, is an inadequate one. A quarter of a century has elapsed. This is no negligible span even as regards the secular forces that make for socialism in the sense explained in Part II. Independently of everything else we shall be confronted at the end of this war with an economic situation, a social atmosphere, a distribution of political power substantially different from those of 1918. Much however has happened during these twentyfive years that could not have been predicted from secular tendencies alone. Among other things there was the great depression which, impinging upon a delicate situation, shook social structures to their foundations, nowhere more than in this country. Still more effective in undermining these structures were the policies by which that depression was handled. And this must be attributed largely to political configurations that were in part accidental. The consequences are obvious. In particular, huge bureaucracies have developed that by now are powerful enough to hold their ground and to implement policies of fundamental reconstruction.

In no country will war taxation of business and of the business class be reduced in the proportion in which it was reduced after 1919. This may in itself suffice to paralyze the motors of capitalism for good and thus provide another argument for government management.

Inflation, even if it should go no further than is, for instance in this country, unavoidable in the present political pattern, may well do the rest, both directly and, through the radicalization of the expropriated holders of bonds and insurance policies, indirectly. Moreover, nowhere will war controls be liquidated to the extent the experience of the years after 1918 might lead us to believe. They will be put to other uses. In this country steps are already being taken to prepare public opinion for governmental management of postwar adjustments and to put the bourgeois alternative out of court. Finally, there is no reason to believe that governments will ever relax the hold they have gained on the capital market and the investment process. To be sure, this does not sum up to socialism. But socialism may, under such conditions, impose itself as the only practicable alternative to deadlocks and incessant friction. Details and phrases will of course differ in different countries. So will political tactics and economic results.

English developments are comparatively easy to foresee.

The labor men entered the Churchill government in response to the call of emergency.

But, as has been pointed out before, they were then well advanced on the road to office and power irrespective of any emergency.

Therefore they will quite naturally be in a position to manage postwar reconstruction alone or—which may prove to be the most effective method— in a coalition they would control. The war economy will have realized some of their immediate aims. To a considerable extent they will only have to keep what they have got already. Further advance toward the socialist goal can be expected to be relatively easy in conditions in which there is not much left for capitalists to fight for. And it may prove possible to be quite frank about it and to carry out socialization soberly, in an orderly way, and largely by consent.

For many reasons, but principally because of the weakness of the official socialist party, prognosis is less easy in the case of this country. But ultimate results are not likely to be different, though slogans are almost sure to be—and costs in terms of both welfare and cultural values.

Once more: it is only socialism in the sense defined in this book that is so predictable.

Nothing else is. In particular there is little reason to believe that this socialism will mean the advent of the civilization of which orthodox socialists dream. It is much more likely to present fascist features. That would be a strange answer to Marx’s prayer. But history sometimes indulges in jokes of questionable taste.