The Future Of Physics

It would be exceedingly rash and presumptuous to predict the future of physics.

The rôle of prophet is not a scientific one. The most firmly established previsions of today may be overthrown by the reality of tomorrow.

Still, the knowledge of the evolution accomplished recently authorises a few suppositions on how Physics might progress.

The classic treatises restrict the diverse chapters of physics. These limits are trampled down in all directions.

Physicists still hope to conquer the supreme principle which commands the whole of physics despite repeated failures.

Some physicists think that:

• such a synthesis is impossible
• Nature is infinitely complex

Still, they construct general hypotheses which furnish them with a convenient means of grouping an immense number of facts.

Kant would have classed them among the fruitful illusions which engender the indefinite progress of science.

Among all the recent theories, that of the ions has taken a preponderant place.

The electron has conquered physics. Many adore the new idol rather blindly.

Certainly we can only bow before an hypothesis which enables us to group in the same synthesis all the discoveries on electric discharges and on radioactive substances, and which leads to a satisfactory theory of optics and of electricity; while by the intermediary of radiating heat it seems likely to embrace shortly the principles of thermodynamics also.

One must admire the power of a creed which penetrates also into the domain of mechanics and furnishes a simple representation of the essential properties of matter; but it is right not to lose sight of the fact that an image may be a well-founded appearance, but may not be capable of being exactly superposed on the objective reality.

The conception of the atom of electricity, the foundation of the material atoms, enables us to penetrate further into Nature’s secrets. But we must not be satisfied with words.

We have transferred to an element ever smaller and smaller those physical qualities which in antiquity were attributed to the whole of a substance.

Then we shifted them later to those chemical atoms which, united together, constitute this whole. To-day we pass them on to the electrons which compose these atoms.

The indivisible is thus rendered, in a way, smaller and smaller, but we are still unacquainted with what its substance may be. The notion of an electric charge which we substitute for that of a material mass will permit phenomena to be united which we thought separate, but it cannot be considered a definite explanation, or as the term at which science must stop.

It is probable that for a few years physics will not travel beyond it.

The present hypothesis suffices for grouping known facts. It will enable many more to be foreseen, while new successes will further increase its possessions.

Then the day will arrive when, like all those which have shone before it, this seductive hypothesis will lead to more errors than discoveries. It will, however, have been improved, and it will have become a very vast and very complete edifice which some will not willingly abandon; for those who have made to themselves a comfortable dwelling-place on the ruins of ancient monuments are often too loth to leave it.

In that day the searchers who were in the van of the march after truth will be caught up and even passed by others who will have followed a longer, but perhaps surer road.

We also have seen at work those prudent physicists who dreaded too daring creeds, and who sought only to collect all the documentary evidence possible, or only took for their guide a few principles which were to them a simple generalisation of facts established by experiments; and we have been able to prove that they also were effecting good and highly useful work.

Neither the former nor the latter, however, carry out their work in an isolated way, and it should be noted that most of the remarkable results of these last years are due to physicists who have known how to combine their efforts and to direct their activity towards a common object, while perhaps it may not be useless to observe also that progress has been in proportion to the material resources of our laboratories.

It is probable that in the future, as in the past, the greatest discoveries, those which will suddenly reveal totally unknown regions, and open up entirely new horizons, will be made by a few scholars of genius who will carry on their patient labour in solitary meditation, and who, in order to verify their boldest conceptions, will no doubt content themselves with the most simple and least costly experimental apparatus.

Yet for their discoveries to yield their full harvest, for the domain to be systematically worked and desirable results obtained, there will be more and more required the association of willing minds, the solidarity of intelligent scholars, and it will be also necessary for these last to have at their disposal the most delicate as well as the most powerful instruments. These are conditions paramount at the present day for continuous progress in experimental science.

If, as has already happened, unfortunately, in the history of science, these conditions are not complied with; if the freedoms of the workers are trammelled, their unity disturbed, and if material facilities are too parsimoniously afforded them,—evolution, at present so rapid, may be retarded, and those retrogressions which, by-the-by, have been known in all evolutions, may occur, although even then hope in the future would not be abolished for ever.

There are no limits to progress. The field of our investigations has no boundaries.