Forecasting the future of dynasties and nations

This includes a discussion of predictions (malahim) and an exposition of the subject called “divination” (jafr)

This innate desire to know future is especially great with important events. People want to know, for instance, how long the world or certain dynasties are going to last.

Towns have a set of people who make a living out of predicting the future because they know that the people are most eager to know it.

All day long, the women, children, and many weak-minded men ask them to foretell their future.

• Some make predictions from sand writing (geomancy) as astrologers (munajjim). 995
• Others predict by casting pebbles and grains of wheat, as “calculators” (hasib)
• Others predict by looking into mirrors and into water, as “drawers of circles” (darib al-mandal).

These are very common in cities and are reprehensible because:

• they are established by the religious law
• supernatural knowledge is veiled (and hidden) from human beings, except for those to whom God Himself has revealed (certain supernatural knowledge) in (their) sleep or through sainthood.

Rulers and amirs who want to know the duration of their own dynasties show the greatest concern for these things and the greatest curiosity in this respect.

Therefore, the interest of scholars has been directed to predicting the duration of dynasties. Every nation has had its soothsayers, its astrologers, and its saints who do “forecasting” (hadathan).

This forecasting involved talking about:

• wars and battles that were going to occur
• how long the ruling dynasty would last
• how many rulers it would have

The Arabs had diviners such as Shiqq and Satih who interpreted the dream of the Yemenite ruler Rabi’ah b. Nasr. They said that:

• the Abyssinians would conquer their country, which would later on revert to them
• Islam and the Arab dynasty would then appear.

Satih also interpreted a dream of the Mobedhan.

The Persian emperor (Khosraw) had sent information about that dream to Satih through ‘Abd-al-Masih. Satih told him about the coming of the Arab dynasty.

The Berbers also had such soothsayers.

The most famous of them was Musa b. Salih of the Banu Yafran (Ifren), or of the Ghumart.

He made forecasts in poems in the native Berber idiom. These poems contain many forecasts.

Most of them are concerned with the royal authority and rule over the Maghrib which the Zanatah were going to obtain. They were popular among the Berbers.

The Berbers thought that Musa was a saint or a soothsayer.

In their self-deception, a few assert occasionally that he was a prophet, because they think that he lived long before the Hijrah.

In this respect, each group used to base itself on the information of prophets, when, as happened among the Israelites, any existed in its own time.

Successive prophets among the Israelites told them similar things when bothered with questions.

During the Muslim dynasty, many such things occurred.

• Some predictions had reference to how long the world in general would last.
• Others had reference to a particular dynasty and its particular life.

At the beginning of Islam, predictions were based on statements reported on the authority of the men around Muhammad and, especially, on that of Jewish converts to Islam such as:

• Ka’b al-ahbar,
• Wahb b. Munabbih, and
• other such persons.

Often, part of the relevant information was obtained from the explicit wording of the transmitted statements and permissible interpretations.

Jafar as-Sadiq and other members of the family of Muhammad also made many such predictions.

They based themselves on removal of the veil, kashf, which they enjoyed on account of their sainthood. Things of this sort are not unknown in the experience of other saints from among their people and descendants.

Muhammad said: “Among you there are men who are spoken to.”

They are the ones who are most deserving of their noble ranks and their gifts of divine grace.

After the early years of Islam, people applied themselves to the sciences and the various technical terminologies. The books of the Greek philosophers were translated into Arabic.

The main basis for predictions now were astrological discussions. Matters concerning royal authority and dynasties and all other matters of general importance were considered as depending on the conjunctions of the stars.

Nativities and interrogations and all other private matters were considered to depend on people’s “ascendants”- that is, on the constellations of the firmament at the time when (these matters) were brought up.

Traditionists like as-Suhayli explain how long Islam and the world will last. 1003 He derived it from at-Tabari. It concludes that the world will last 500 years after the coming of Islam. This is not true and the theory has been demolished.

At-Tabari based his theory on Ibn ‘Abbis, which says that this world constitutes a single week of the weeks of the other world. 1004 He did not bring any proof for it.

The statement may possibly mean that this world is to be measured in days corresponding to the days ofthe creation of heaven and earth. They were seven, and each of them is 1,000 years, according to the verse of the Qur’an: “A day with your Lord is a thousand years as you count days.”

He said: “Now, it is established in the sound tradition of the Sahih that Muhammad said: “Your term, as compared to the term of those who were before you, (will extend) from the afternoon prayer to sunset.”

He also said: “I and the Hour were sent like these two,” and he pointed with the index finger and the middle finger.

Now, the time between the afternoon prayer and sunset, when the shadow of every object becomes twice as long as (the object itself), is approximately 1/2 of 1/7 of the day.

The middle finger is longer than the index finger by about the same amount 1/14th.

Consequently, the length of the duration of the world after the coming of Islam would be half of 1/7 of the whole week of 7,000 years. This would be 500 years.

This figure is supported by the statement of Muhammad, “God can make this nation last longer than half a day.”

This shows that the duration of the world before Islam was 5,500 years.

Wahb b. Munabbih said that it was 5,600 years 1010-that is, the period that had passed (before the coming of Islam.

Ka’b and Wahb said that the entire duration of the world is 6,000 years.

As-Suhayli said: “There is nothing in the two traditions to support his (at-Tabari’s) interpretation (concerning the fivehundred-year duration of Islam), and what has actually happened has turned out to be different.

The statement of Muhammad, ‘God is indeed not unable to have this nation last longer than half a day,’ does not imply that a longer period than half a day is excluded. And his statement, ‘I and the Hour were sent like these two,’ refers to the closeness (of the Hour) and to the fact that there will be no other prophet and no other religious law (in the short time) between (Muhammad) and the Hour.

As-Suhayli then turned to another source for determining the duration of Islam, in the hope that he might find the correct answer. He took the letters at the beginning of the surahs, 1012 disregarded repetitions, and thus found that there were 14 letters, which can be arranged to form the sentence ’lm yst’ ns hq krh.

He added up the numerical value of these letters, which comes to 903,1014 to be added to the time which had already passed of the last millennium before the coming of (Muhammad). (The total) then, was the length of the duration of Islam.

As-Suhayli said: “It is not unlikely that this is the information those letters were intended to convey.”

I say: The fact that it is “not unlikely” does not imply that it is evident, or that it must be understood this way. As-Suhayli was influenced by the story of the two sons of Akhtab, one of the Jewish rabbis (who had contact with Muhammad), which occurs in Ibn Ishaq’s Sirah. These were Abu Yasir and his brother Huyayy.

They had heard about the letters ’lm, which belong to the letters at the beginning of the surahs, and interpreted them as indicating, by their numerical value, the length of the duration (of Islam). Their numerical value was 71. They considered that too short a period, and Huyayy went to the Prophet and asked him whether there were other such (letters).

Muhammad mentioned ’lms. (Huyayy) asked for more, and Muhammad mentioned ’lr. Again, (Huyayy) asked for more, and Muhammad mentioned ’lmr.

The numerical value of ’lmr was 271.

Huyayy considered that (too) long a period and said= “We are in confusion concerning your future, 0 Muhammad. We do not know whether you have been given little or much (time).” Whereupon they (the Jews) left him. Abu Yasir said to them= “How do you know? Perhaps he was given the total of the numerical value of all the letters,namely, 704 years.”

Said Ibn Ishaq: “In consequence, the following verse of the Qur’an was revealed:= ‘It contains clearly understood verses that are the mother of the book (and other ambiguous ones … ) .’ "

This story does not prove that the duration of Islam can be estimated at that figure. The assumption that the letters refer to such figures (giving the duration of Islam) is neither natural nor rational. It is merely the result of the conventional and technical procedure which is called hisab al jummal (counting the numerical value of letters).

The fact of the antiquity of a technical procedure does not make it conclusive evidence (for whatever one wants to prove by it).

Furthermore, neither Abu Yasir and his brother Huyayy, nor any of the Jewish scholars for that matter, were the sort of men whose opinion with regard to such a matter (as the duration of Islam) could be considered proof of it(s being as they say). They were Bedouins of the Hijaz and did not know any crafts or sciences.

They did not even know their own religious law, nor did they understand their own Scriptures and religion. 1 018 They had picked up this (method of calculating by the numerical value of letters), just as the common people of every religious group pick it up. Thus, as-Suhayli has no proof for his claims concerning (the duration of Islam).

For specific forecasts concerning particular dynasties, Islam has a general traditional basis in the tradition of Hudhayfah b. al-Yaman, 1019 published by Abu Dawud through his shaykh Muhammad b. Yahya adh-Dhuhli, 1020 on the authority of Sa’id b. Abi Maryam, 1021 on the authority of ‘Abdallah b. Farrikh, 1022 on the authority of Usamah b. Zayd al-Laythi,1023 on the authority of a son of Qabisah b. Dhu’ayb,1024 on the authority of his father, who said= “Hudhayfah b. al-Yaman said= ‘By God, I do not know whether my companions have forgotten it or merely pretend to have forgotten it. By God, no leader of a disturbance who had 300 or more (men) with him, up to the end of the world, was omitted by the Messenger of God. He mentioned his name, the, name of his father, and the name of his tribe.’ " 1025

Abu Dawud did not make any remarks critical of (this tradition). Abu Dawud said in his Epistle that everything to which he did not append critical remarks in his book was all right. 1026 If (this tradition) is sound, it still is a general one. In order to explain its general meaning and to indicate what is not clearly expressed in it, one requires other traditions with good chains of transmitters.

The tradition occurs in works other than (Abu Dawud’s) Kitab as-Sunan, in another form. In the two Sahihs, there also occurs the following tradition of Hudhayfah, who said= “The Messenger of God stood up to give us a sermon. He did not omit anything, but talked about everything that would happen in his place here until the coming of the Hour. Some remember it, and some have forgotten it, (but) the men around him who (were present on that occasion) know it.” 1027 Al-Bukhari’s recension reads= “He did not omit, but mentioned everything down to the coming of the Hour.”

The work of at-Tirmidhi includes the tradition of Abu Sa’id al-Khudri, who said= “The Messenger of God said the afternoon prayer with us one day in the daytime. Then he stood up to give a sermon. He did not leave anything out, but informed us about everything that will happen down to the coming of the Hour.

Some remember it, and some have forgotten it.” 1028All these traditions must be referred to the traditions concerning the disturbances (of the Last Day) and the conditions governing it, as they are established in (the sound tradition of) the Sahih. They do not refer to anything else.

This is what is expected from the Lawgiver (Muhammad) when he speaks in such generalities. The additional information Abu Dawud supplies, and which he stands alone in transmitting, is unusual and not to be approved of. Moreover, the religious leaders hold different opinions concerning the personalities (mentioned by Abu Dawud).

Ibn Abi Maryam said regarding Ibn Farrukh that his traditions are not approved of. Al-Bukhari said= “Some of his traditions are acknowledged, and others are not.” Ibn ‘Adi said= “His traditions are not to be retained.”

Usamah b. Zayd has traditions of his published in the two Sahihs, and he was considered reliable by Ibn Main. However, al-Bukhari published traditions of his only in order to support (the reliability of traditions). Yahya b. Sa’id and Ahmad b. Hanbal considered him weak. Abu Hatim said= “His traditions may be written down, but they may not be used as evidence.”

The son of Qabisah b. Dhu’ayb is little known.

Thus, the additional information occurring in Abu Dawud in connection with the tradition mentioned, is weak in all these respects, in addition to the aforementioned fact that it is unusual.

As a basis for specific forecasts concerning dynasties, one uses the Kitab al-Jafr. 1029

People think that it contains information about all these things in the form of traditions or astro(logical predictions). They do not (think) beyond that, and they do not know its origin nor its basis. It should be known that the Kitab al-Jafr had its origin in the fact that Harun b. Sa’id al-‘Ijli,1030 the head of the Zaydiyah, had a book that he transmitted on the authority of Ja’far as-Sadiq.

That book contained information as to what would happen to the family of Muhammad in general and to certain members of it in particular. The (information) had come to Ja’far and to other ‘Alid personages as an act of divine grace and through the removal (of the veil, kashf) which is given to saints like them. (The book was) in Ja’far’s possession.

It was written upon the skin of a small ox. Harun al-‘Ijli transmitted it on (Ja’far’s) authority. He wrote it down and called it al-Jafr, after the skin upon which it had been written, because jafr means a small (camel or lamb). (Jafr) became the characteristic title they used for the book.

The Kitab al-Jafr contained remarkable statements concerning the interpretation of the Qur’an and concerning its inner meaning. (The statements in it) were transmitted on the authority of Ja’far as-Sadiq. The book has not come down through continuous transmission and is not known as a book as such. Only stray remarks unaccompanied by any proofs (of their authenticity) are known from it. If the ascription to Ja’far as-Sadiq were correct, the work would have the excellent authority of Jafar himself or of people of his family who enjoyed acts of divine grace.

It is a fact that Ja’far warned certain of his relatives about accidents that would occur to them, and things turned out as he had predicted. He warned Yahya, the son of his uncle Zayd, about his impending debacle, but he disobeyed him, revolted, and was killed in alJuzajan, as is well known.1031 If acts of divine grace occur also to others, they should all the more occur to (members of Muhammad’s family), in view of their knowledge, their religion, the tradition of Muhammad’s prophecy (which they represent), and God’s concern for the noble root (Muhammad) which extends to partiality for its goodly branches.

Much of this material is reported among members of the family of Muhammad, but it is not attributed to the Jafr (just mentioned). In the history of the ‘Ubaydid(-Fatimids), there is much of it. An illustration is the story reported by Ibnar-Ragiq 1032 about a meeting between Abu ‘Abdallah ash-Shi’i and ‘Ubaydallah al-Mahdi, who was with his father Muhammad al-Habib. 1033 (Al-Mahdi and his father) discussed matters with (Abu ‘Abdallah) 1034 and sent the latter to Ibn Hawshab, their missionary in the Yemen. (Ibn Hawshab) ordered Abu ‘Abdallah to go to the Maghrib and spread (Fatimid) propaganda there. He did so in the knowledge that the (‘Ubaydid-Fatimid) dynasty would materialize in (the Maghrib).

Later on, when ‘Ubaydallah was building al-Mahdiyah in Ifriqiyah and their dynasty was flourishing, he said= “I am building this city so that the Fatimids may find protection in it for one hour of a (certain) day,” and he showed the (people around him) the place within the city where “the Man of the Donkey” would stop.

(‘Ubaydallah’s) grandson Ismail al-Mansur heard of this story, and when “the Man of the Donkey,” Abu Yazid, came to besiege him in al-Mahdiyah,1035 al-Mansur always inquired where he had last stopped. Eventually, he was informed that Abu Yazid had reached the place his grandfather ‘Ubaydallah had indicated. Now, he was sure of victory. He went out of the town, routed (Abu Yazid), and pursued him as far as the region of the Zab, where he defeated and killed him. (The ‘Alids) have many such stories to tell.

Astrologers use conjunctions, especially those of Saturn and Jupiter, to predict royal authority and dynasties. Those two are in conjunction once every 20 years.

After 20 years, their conjunction reoccurs in another sign of the same triplicity 1036 (but) in trine dexter,1037 and again (twenty years later) in another (sign). This is repeated in the same triplicity twelve times.

It takes 60 years (for three conjunctions) in the three signs (of the first triplicity), and another sixty years each for a second, third, and fourth time. The 12 repetitions in the triplicity, with four recurrences, thus take 240 years. The movement (of the conjunction) in each sign is toward the trine dexter. It moves on from the one triplicity into the adjacent triplicity, that is, into the sign that is adjacent to the sign of the triplicity in which the conjunction had last taken place.

The conjunctions of the two superior planets are divided into great, small, and medium. 1038 The great conjunction is the meeting of the two superior planets in the same degree of the firmament, which reoccurs after 960 years. The medium conjunction is the conjunction of the two superior planets in each triplicity with its 12 repetitions. After 240 years, they move on to another triplicity. The small conjunction is the conjunction of the two superior planets in the same sign; after 20 years, they have a conjunction in another sign in trine dexter at the same degree and minute.

For instance, if the conjunction occurs in the first minute of Aries, it will reoccur after twenty years in the first minute of Sagittarius, and then again after twenty years in Leo.1039 All the (signs) mentioned are fiery, and all the conjunctions are small ones.

The conjunction then reoccurs in the beginning of Aries after sixty years.

This is called “the cycle of the conjunction” or “the reoccurrence of the conjunction.” After 240 years, (the conjunction) moves on from the fiery (triplicity) to the earthy (triplicity), which comes after (the fiery one). This, then, is the medium conjunction.

Then, the conjunction moves on to the airy and watery triplicities, and then reoccurs in the beginning of Aries after 960 years. This, then, is the great conjunction.

The great conjunction indicates great events, such as a change in royalauthority or dynasties, or a transfer of royal authority from one people to another.

The medium conjunction (indicates) the appearance of persons in search of superiority and royal authority. The small conjunction (indicates) the appearance of rebels or propagandists, and the ruin of towns or of their civilization.

In between these conjunctions, there occurs the conjunction of the 2 unlucky planets (Saturn and Mars) in the sign of Cancer once every 30 years. It is called ar-rabi` (the fourth).

The sign of Cancer is the ascendant of the world.

It is the detriment of Saturn and the dejection of Mars. This conjunction strongly indicates disturbances, wars, bloodshed, the appearance of rebels, the movement of armies, the disobedience of soldiers, plagues, and drought.

These things persist, or come to an end, depending on the luck or ill luck (prevailing) at the time of conjunction of (the two unlucky planets), as determined by the direction of the significator in it.

Jirash b. Ahmad al-Hasib composed a book for Nizam al-Mulk. It wrote

“The return of Mars to Scorpio has an important influence upon the Muslim religious group, because it is its significator. The birth of the Prophet took place when the two superior planets were in conjunction in the sign of Scorpio.

Whenever the conjunction reoccurs there, trouble is brewing for the caliphs. There is much illness among scholars and religious personalities, and their conditions are reduced. Occasionally, houses of worship are destroyed.

The conjunction occurred at the deaths of ‘Ali, of the Umayyad Marwan, and of the Abbasid al-Mutawakkil. If such judgments are taken into consideration, together with the judgments based upon the conjunctions, they are exceedingly reliable.”

Shadhan al-Balkhi mentioned that Islam would last 310 years.

• This has proved to be wrong.

Abu Ma’shar said: “Islam will have many differences after the 150’s.”

• This was not correct.

Jirash said: “I have seen in the books of the ancients that the astrologers informed Khosraw that the Arabs would gain royal authority and the prophecy (of Muhammad) would appear among them. The significator of the Arabs is Venus, which was then in its exaltation. The royal authority of the Arabs would last 40 years.”

Abu Ma’shar said in the Book of Conjunctions= “When the section 1046 reaches the twenty-seventh (degree) 1047 of Pisces, in which Venus has its exaltation, and when, at the same time, the conjunction occurs in Scorpio, which is the significator of the Arabs, then the Arab dynasty will make its appearance, and there will be a prophet among them. The power and duration of his rule will correspond to the remaining degrees of the exaltation of Venus-that is, approximately eleven degrees of the sign of Pisces.

That will be a period of 610 years. Abu Muslim 1048 appeared when Venus moved on, and the section occurred in the beginning of Aries, with Jupiter ruling the field.”

Ya’qub b. Ishaq al-Kindi said that Islam would last 693 years; he said, ‘because in the conjunction that dominates Islam, Venus was in 28 ° 42’ 1050 of Pisces. The remainder, thus, was 11 ° 18’. There are sixty minutes to the degree.

Thus, it will be 693 years.” He said (further)= “This is the duration of Islam as generally agreed upon by the philosophers. The figure is supported by the letters that occur at the beginning of certain surahs, if one omits the repetitions and counts the numerical value of the letters.” I say= This is what was mentioned by as-Suhayli. Themost likely assumption is that al-Kindi was as-Suhayli’s source for the remarks we reported on as-Suhayli’s authority. 1051

Jirash said= “The sage Hurmuzdafrid 1052 was asked about the duration of the rule of Ardashir and his children, the Sassanian rulers. He replied= ‘The significator of his rule is Jupiter. Jupiter was in exaltation (when Ardashir appeared).

Thus, Jupiter gives (the Sassanians) the longest and best years, that is, 427. Then, Venus will rule and be in exaltation. Venus signifies that the Arabs will come to power,1053 because the ascendant of the conjunction is Libra, and it is ruled by Venus, which, at the time of the conjunction, will be in exaltation. This indicates that (the Arabs) will rule 1,060 years.”

Khosraw Anosharwan asked his wazir, the sage Buzurjmihr, about the transfer of royal authority from the Persians to the Arabs. Buzurjmihr informed him that the founder of Arab rule would be born in the forty-fifth year of his reign.

He would take possession of the East and the West. Jupiter would turn over the rule to Venus, and the conjunction would move on from the airy (triplicity) into Scorpio, which belongs to the watery (triplicity).

Venus is the significator of the Arabs. All the indications mentioned imply that Islam will have a duration corresponding to the period of Venus, that is, 1,060 years.

Khosraw Aparwez asked the sage Ulyus 1054 about the same matter, and Ulyus gave a reply similar to that which Buzurjmihr had given (to Khosraw Anosharwan).

Theophilus was 1055 the Byzantine astrologer of the Umayyad period. He said that the Muslim dynasty would have the duration of the great conjunction, that is, 960 years.

When the conjunction occurs again in the sign of Scorpio, as it had at the beginning of Islam, and when the position of the stars in the conjunction that dominates Islam has changed, it will be less effective, or there will be new judgments that will make a change of opinion necessary.

Jirash said= “They are agreed that the destruction of the world will come through water and fire. Water and fire will gain preponderance until all created things have perished. This will take place when Regulus crosses 24°, (thus entering) the field of Mars. 1056 This will be the case after 960 years have passed.”

Jirash mentioned that among other gifts, the ruler of Zabulistan-that is, Ghaznah-sent his sage Dhuban to alMa’mun. (Dhuban) made for al-Ma’mun astrological elections that favored al-Ma’mun’s going to war against his brother and appointing Taeir as commander-in-chief. AlMa’mun thought highly of (Dhuban’s) wisdom, and asked him how long the (‘Abbasid) rule would last. (Dhuban) informed him that the children of his brother (al-Mu’tasim), and not his own descendants, would rule, and that the nonArab Daylam would gain control over the caliphate. At first they would exercise good government, for 50 years.

Then, their condition would deteriorate. Eventually, the Turks would make their appearance from the northeast. Their rule would extend to Syria and the Euphrates.1057

They would conquer the Byzantine territory. Then, there would happen what God would want to happen. Al-Ma’mun asked (Dhuban) where he got his information from, and (Dhuban) replied that he had it from the books of the philosophers and from the astrological judgments of the Indian Sassah b= Dahir, the inventor of chess. 10 58

I say= The Turks to whose appearance after the Daylam (Dhuban) referred, are the Saljtigs. The (Saljuq) dynasty was destroyed at the beginning of the 13 century.

Jirash said

“The conjunction will move on into the watery triplicity in thesign of Pisces in the year 833 of the era of Yazdjard.1059 From there, it will move on to the sign of Scorpio-where there had occurred the conjunction under which Islam (originated) 1060 -in the year (8) 53.”

He said= “(The conjunction) in Pisces is the beginning of the movement, 1061 and the conjunction in Scorpio will produce the indications applying to Islam.”

He said: “The revolution of the first year of the first conjunction in the watery triplicity will be (completed) on Rajab 2, 868 [March 11, 1464].”

He did not discuss this matter more fully.

With regard to individual dynasties, the astrologers base themselves on the medium conjunction and the constellation of the firmament when it takes place. In their opinion, it indicates the origin of a dynasty, its forms of civilization, the nations that will support it, the number and names of the rulers, the length of their lives, the sects and religions (that will be found in that dynasty), the customs of the rulers, and the wars they will wage. This was mentioned by Abu Ma’shar in his Book of Conjunctions.

Such indications may (also) be derived from the small conjunction, if the medium conjunction indicates (such a course). The discussion of dynasties is thus derived from (these conjunctions).

Ya’qub b. Ishaq al-Kindi, astrologer to ar-Rashid and alMa’mun, composed a book on the conjunctions affecting Islam. The Shi’ah called the book al-Jafr, after the name of their own book, which is attributed to Ja’far as-Sadiq. In his book, al-Kindi is said to have made complete forecasts concerning the ‘Abbasid dynasty. He indicated that the destruction of (the ‘Abbasid dynasty) and the fall of Baghdad would take place in the middle of the 13 century and that its destruction would result from 1063 the destruction of Islam.

We have not found any information concerning (alKindi’s) book, and we have not seen anyone who has seen it. Perhaps it was lost with those books which Hulagu, the ruler of the Tatars, threw into the Tigris 1065 when the Tatars took possession of Baghdad and killed the last caliph, al-Musta’sim. In the Maghrib, there exists a fascicle considered to belong to (al-Kindi’s) book. It is called the Small Jafr.

But it is obvious that it was composed for the Banfi ‘Abd-alMu’min, for it mentions in detail the early Almohad rulers. The forecasts of the work are right with respect to the preceding period, and they are wrong for the later period.

In the ‘Abbasid dynasty, there were astrologers and books on forecasts after al-Kindi. One may compare the story reported by at-Tabari in the history of al-Mahdi on the authority of Abu Budayl, one of the followers of the dynasty. (Abu Budayl) said= 1066 “Ar-Rabi’ and al-Hasan sent for me, when they were on an expedition together with ar-Rashid during the days of (ar-Rashid’s) father (al-Mahdi).

I came to them in the middle of the night. They had with them one of the dynasty books’-that is, (a book of) forecasts. The duration of al-Mahdi’s reign was given in it as ten years. I said= ‘This book will not remain unknown to al-Mahdi, and there have already passed (that many) years of his reign. When he sees (the book, it will be as bad as if) you (were to) announce his own death to him.’

They asked me what might be done, and I called for the copyist ‘Anbasah, a client of the family of Budayl, and said to him= ‘Copy this leaf, and write forty instead of ten.’ He did so, and, indeed, if I had not seen the ten on that leaf, and the 40 on this one, I would not have doubted that it was the same original leaf that formed part of the manuscript.”

Later on, works in poetry and prose and in rajaz verse dealing with forecasts concerning dynasties were written in considerable quantity. Much of it found its way into the hands of the people. It is called “predictions” (malahim). Some of these works concern forecasts about Islam in general. Others are about particulardynasties. All of these works are attributed to famous persons.

But there is nothing to support ascribing them to the persons on whose authority they are transmitted. One such prediction work is the poem by Ibn Murranah 1067 in the meter tawil with the rhyme on r. 1068 It has a wide circulation among the people in the Maghrib.

The common people think that it has to do with general forecasts, and they apply many of its forecasts to the present and the future. But our shaykhs informed us that it refers in particular to the Lamtunah (Almohad) dynasty, since its author lived shortly before (the dynasty came to power).

In (the poem), he mentioned that the Lamtunah took Ceuta out of the hands of the clients of the Hammudids 1069 and that they gained control of the Spanish shore.

Another prediction work in the hands of the inhabitants of the Maghrib is a poem called at-Tubba’iyah, which begins:

A bird in captivity may also feel happy.

I do not (feel happy) because of something entertaining that I see,

But because I am remembering something.

This poem is said to contain about 500-1,000 verses.

In it, the poet mentioned much about the Almohad dynasty, and he referred to the (expected) Fatimid and other things. It is obvious that it is a forgery.