National Unity Tested by Regional and Religious Pressures '

Washington and London needed Musharraf’s continued leadership for their ‘War on Terror’ and for pacifying Afghanistan.

But by himself he could neither assure stability nor mobilise public support for the fight against terror.

Benazir Bhutto, whose party’s popularity and lobbying efforts in Washington had convinced many that she deserved another chance to steer her country towards a moderate course.

The genesis of an eventual Musharraf-Bhutto deal lay in a secret public opinion survey conducted in 2005 by the British High Commission.

This found that:

• Musharraf’s ‘king’s party’ would lose in the coming elections
• the PPP would win a plurality of seats even though the President received the highest approval ratings.

Britain’s then High Commissioner Mark Lyall Grant and his American counterpart Ryan Crocker held a series of meetings with Musharraf and his political confidante, Tariq Aziz to convince them of a deal with Benazir.

She would support another Presidential term for him.

In return, he would drop long-standing corruption cases and allow her to contest elections.

They also paved the way for two secret meetings between Musharraf and Bhutto in Dubai.

Musharraf had insisted Benazir return after the elections. But her calculations changed as she saw his position weaken.

When Nawaz Sharif announced plans to return to the country, Benazir decided to do the same.

This all but shattered her ‘deal’ with Musharraf.

Three decisions Musharraf took completely changed the political dynamic and spelt the beginning of the end for him.

1. The bloody assault on Islamabad’s Lal Masjid that had been taken over by a motley crew of religious fanatics and militants linked with al Qaeda.

This became the lightning rod for a deadly wave of militant violence that swept the country in 2007. It also unified different militant factions into violent opposition to Musharraf’s rule.

The growing anti-Americanism further contributed to his unpopularity.

2. In March 2007, he tried and failed to force Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry to resign

A series of public-interest judicial interventions sent Choudhry’s popularity soaring. He fought back by ending Musharraf’s re-election.

Musharraf then suspended him and confined him to house detention. This caused a national outrage.

This protest received 24/7 coverage by an energetic broadcast media, which supported the burgeoning anti-Musharraf movement.

The pro-democracy spirit that animated this constellation of groups was reinforced by popular aspirations for the rule of law epitomised by an independent judiciary.

Four months of protests led the Supreme Court to rule that the sacked Chief Justice should be reinstated.

Musharraf went ahead to have himself re-elected on 6 October 2007, but without legitimacy from an outgoing legislature.

It also exposed him to challenge by the country’s apex court.

In this changed political scenario Bhutto returned to the country on 19 October to a rapturous welcome from her supporters.

She supported Iftikhar Chaudhry and called on Musharraf to give up his army post.

The rising pressure and ‘quiet counsel’ from Washington eventually forced Musharraf to relinquish the position of Chief of Army Staff (COAS).

He then made the biggest political blunder: he feared that the Supreme Court would strike down his re-election, so he declared a state of emergency on 3 November, citing a deteriorating law and order situation.

• He placed thousands of lawyers, opposition leaders including Bhutto in house detention or jail.

This action split the establishment (even his own Chief of Staff opposed the emergency) and drained support from the Army for an increasingly unpopular leader.

The fallout of Bhutto’s assassination, sealed Musharraf’s fate.

He lifted the state of emergency but his political standing had been irrevocably damaged. The general election in February 2008 struck the decisive blow.

The official party was routed. The PPP emerged as a single largest party.

Sharif’s Muslim League came second and triumphed in the Punjab to seize political control of the province. It was now just a matter of time for Musharraf to be forced out.

He quit on 18 August 2008 because of:

• the threat of impeachment by the 2 victorious parties
• the Army’s withdrawal of support

Pakistan’s fourth period of military rule ended.

The PPP’s ascent to power was accompanied by doubts about its capacity to govern at a pivotal moment for the country.

A more politically confident middle class emerged from the Musharaff era.

Musharraf ultimately became a casualty of his own policies of economic, cultural and media liberalisation which:

• allowed more political activity
• provided new avenues for political engagement for better educated and more self-confident urban citizens.