National Unity Tested by Regional and Religious Pressures '

Political Islam declined due to:

• electoral politics in the 1990s
• the post-Musharraf democratic era.

But it gave way to a more dangerous phenomenon-militant Islam.

Militancy was born from the jihad against the Russians.

• It was emboldened by the rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan especially after the 2001 US-led attack on Afghanistan
• It unified militant forces
• In December 2007, it caused the rise of:
  • the Pakistani Taliban
  • the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) alliance

These were linked to the Afghan Taliban by:

• tribal affiliation
• Pashtun identity
• a broadly shared ideology
• a common nexus with al Qaeda

The Pakistani Taliban also imposed Shari’a in areas under their influence.

• This brought them into direct confrontation with Pakistan’s security institutions on which they declared war for being ‘agents’ of the Americans.

In 2008 and 2009, the TTP created mayhem:

• launching suicide attacks in the cities
• taking over Swat
• establishing an infrastructure of terrorism across the tribal areas especially in South Waziristan.

In 2009, the military, through fierce offensives in Swat and South Waziristan:

• drove out the Taliban
• dismantled their sanctuaries
• re-established the government

Pakistanis and many of the ulema and religious parties rejected the militant notion that the Shari’a could be imposed at gunpoint.

Transformational Trends

Could changes help the country:

• escape its past
• enable it to move towards better governance and a more inclusive political system?

Dramatic political events during 2007-2009 were the economic and social changes of the preceding 7 years*:

• accelerated economic growth
• a wave of urbanisation
• an exponential expansion in the independent broadcast media
• a telecom boom.

Superphysics Note

This was the height of the financial crisis

All of these strengthened modernising trends just when militancy were rising.

These socio-economic transformations obscured the lopsided planning that was to:

• produce crippling shortages and problems that plague the country today.

• lead to tumultuous events that culminated in Musharraf’s forced resignation and the end of military rule.

During 2000-2007, Pakistan’s economy grew at an average of 6-7% a year, which made it one of the fastest growing Asian economies.

• The size of the economy doubled.
• Per capita incomes increased from $527 in 2000 to $925 in 2007 (over $1,250 in 2009).
• In Purchasing Power Parity terms, Pakistan’s per capita GDP reached $3,000 per head of the population.
• Exports doubled in dollar terms.
• Foreign direct investment went up to a record $7 billion in 2006
• Remittances hit an all time high at $7 billion in 2007.

The economic surge was also visible in urbanisation that rose to 35% by 2007.

The urban population’s contribution to GDP reached 3 quarters of the total and accounted for almost all of government revenue.

This increased the numbers of the middle class.

By 2008, economists estimated that it had risen to around 30 million earning an estimated $10,000-$15,000 (in PPP terms), bigger than the population of 185 countries. This was endorsed by:

• Ishrat Husain, the former governor of the State Bank
• former World Bank Vice President Shahid Javed Burki.

Between 2002 and 2007, car and television sales grew at 20% and 29% respectively.

By 2005 well over half of all households owned a TV.

The telecommunications sector saw record foreign investment and growth.

Mobile phone subscribers rose from 1 million in 1999 to 70 million by 2007. In 2010, the number reached 120 million.

By 2006-07, close to 90% of the population had access to telecom services, giving the country the highest teledensity in the region.

Internet subscribers went up fourfold in this period. By 2006-07, 11% of the population were internet users, higher than that in India.

Similarly, opening up the broadcast media to the private sector saw rapid expansion in the number of independent television networks.

2008-2009 recorded a 118% annual growth in privately-owned cable TV networks.

In 1999, there was only 1 state-owned TV network.

By 2007, there were over 50 (around 100 in 2010) including 24 news channels.

These developments pointed to:

• a more numerous middle class
• a more ‘connected’ and empowered urban society benefiting from globalisation.

A ‘stronger’ society was emerging just when state capacity in many areas was eroding and the pressure intensifying from a surging population, growing at over 2% a year.

Bu the political system stayed stagnant as Musharraf consolidated rather than loosen his grip on power.

With his presidential term due to expire in November 2007 he sought to secure a second term ahead of the parliamentary elections scheduled for 2008.

This forced a fatal confrontation with Pakistan’s hitherto quiescent higher judiciary. It created newer forms of politics.

The US and UK tried to help him retain power.

• They tried to forge a deal between the General and Benazir Bhutto to enable her to return to the country.21

Thereafter events shook the country:

• her tragic assassination
• the return of her party to power
• the revival of the political fortunes of Nawaz Sharif.

These events were to culminate in Musharraf’s ouster.